In bad times, some jobs/businesses thrive: lawyers, arms-makers. Chaos dividend is real
This is going to break your heart – assuming you are one of the vast majority, which has only seen a modest, and that’s putting it kindly, salary increase. Across law firms, increments are expected to be in the 10-20% range this year. Yes, yes, this story is not India only. The profession’s boomtime is being felt worldwide. Because, unlike lesser mortals, lawyers profit from chaos. IPOs and M&As are going strong anyway. Then every conflict zone, sanctions regime, tariff dispute creates new compliance requirements, and contract renegotiations. Enter the guys in dark suits who talk billable hours.
No prizes for guessing who else is doing great: arms manufacturers. Although, their highs are in an altogether different league. Global defence market’s projected to grow from $2.75tn in 2026 to $4.26tn in 2035. This, however, is a pre-Feb-28 forecast. The picture’s become rosier, or should we say bloodier, since. Nothing says good fortune like a $12.5bn F-35 contract when war’s hurting everyone else’s wallet. Bombs go down, earnings go up. That’s a special gig.
There’s profit to be made from the closing of Hormuz Strait too. An oil producer with supply sitting safely somewhere else, really gets his jollies from war’s chokepoint. Asset managers, cybersecurity firms, even private intelligence groups are some of the others revelling in heightened uncertainties. The more chaotic the geopolitical landscape, the more govts and corporations pay lavishly for someone, anyone, to hold their hands, in the company of confident PowerPoints and a very large invoice. Some of this “consultation” is basically a protection racket, but with better branding. The special thing about doomsday profiteers is that none of these industries cause catastrophe (although, this can be debatable in some cases). They can claim to be helping, while posting record profits doing it. Their un-self-critical motto could be what ‘Mother Courage’ says in the Brecht masterpiece: “I won’t let you spoil my war for me. Destroys the weak, does it? Well, what does peace do for’em, huh? War feeds its people better.”
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
