It’s a ceasefire where combatant parties aren’t ceasing to fire – and it may get worse. Hormuz is more shut than open. Whether the US-Iran meet in Islamabad will happen is not certain. Nonetheless, Pakistan’s role as a go-between will remain a fact. Washington and Tehran talked through Islamabad, and gave it credit. Any rational nation-state, especially a very large oil importer, should welcome all efforts at arranging a ceasefire, as indeed GOI did on Wednesday. But there appears to be some consternation in India about Pakistan’s mediation, and not just among social media’s shouting brigades.
That’s puzzling. Why should Pakistan’s role diminish India’s sense of itself? As a large energy importer, and a fast-growing economy, any attempts to stop the war are good for India. Those who claim to speak for its core self-interest, should know this: nothing’s more important than free-flowing, cheaper hydrocarbons.
Also, look at history. Pakistan, despite its many problems, is no stranger to mediating between big actors. Kissinger, with Pakistani official support, had feigned illness on a visit to Pakistan, and made a secret trip to China, paving the way for the Nixon-Mao meet in 1972. Pakistan’s military-political complex also has a track record of engaging with major powers, even if they are from opposite ends of the geopolitical spectrum. These are skills born out of necessity – Pakistan has to make itself useful to big boys, or it risks losing their indulgence. That outcome, increasingly, it can’t afford. Plus, both Washington and Tehran needed a malleable player to act as a messenger.
Pakistan has been ingratiating itself to Trump for a year. Both Munir and Sharif have flattered him. But that’s not a game India plays. It withstood 50% Trump tariffs, never entirely stopped buying Russian oil, and got to a point where a US trade deal is back on the table. That’s because India, these days, comes in higher in the global batting order, and it can try and build an innings. Diplomacy is a Test match, not throw-your-bat-around T20.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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