Two factors suggest that the fast-deteriorating internal security situation in Pakistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is having more serious security implications for India than before. First, the Pak internal security situation has worsened since the Pahalgam terrorist attack, placing greater pressure on the Pak Army to engineer a confrontation with India in accordance with its paybook. Second, the confidence level of Munir, a deal-broker projecting himself as a ‘peace-maker’ and receiving pats for his forked tongue and duplicity, has increased considerably to undertake reckless actions.
Since 2019, Pakistan witnessed a steady erosion of Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative, following India’s abrogation of Article 370. Security conditions in J&K improved significantly, terrorist incidents declined, infiltration became more difficult, and economic growth and tourism created new opportunities for local youth. The Pak Army got alarmed to see that the Kashmir issue was slipping as a tool to justify its dominant role in national politics.
Pakistan’s internal situation worsened dramatically prior to May 2025. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) intensified attacks on security forces. Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan deteriorated sharply. In PoK, public resentment against Islamabad grew, while in Baluchistan, separatist groups escalated attacks on security personnel and strategic assets.
These developments weakened the Pak Army’s image as the guarantor of national stability. Economic conditions also deteriorated, forcing repeated dependence on international lenders and bailout packages. Faced with shrinking strategic space and growing domestic criticism, the military establishment decided to revive tensions with India.
According to former Pakistan Army officer Adil Raja, the Pahalgam attack was planned under the direction of Munir as part of Pakistan’s long-standing strategy of using terrorism as an instrument against India. JeM commander Masood Ilyas Kashmiri revealed that Munir issued direct orders to top military officers, including corps commanders, to attend and provide security in uniform at the funerals of terrorists killed in India’s Operation Sindoor. With direct support and strategic patronage, these groups continue to serve as what many analysts describe as Pakistan’s “unofficial army.”
Munir’s ideological orientation is an important factor. A strong advocate of the ‘two-nation’ theory, he is widely viewed as a hardliner who sees hostility towards India as central to Pakistan’s national identity. Analysts have frequently described him as a “jihadi general,” reflecting concerns about the increasing influence of religious radicalism within Pakistan’s security establishment. Incidentally, religious radicalism was promoted by General Zia and madrasa trained persons began to be recruited in the Pakistan Army. Munir is also a madrasa product and son of an Imam.
Today, Pakistan’s internal challenges are even more severe than they were before the Pahalgam attack. The TTP has significantly expanded its operational capabilities, reorganised its network with several smaller groups joining it and is launching increasingly sophisticated attacks against security forces. Suicide bombings and major terrorist attacks have become routine, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement continues to draw support despite official restrictions, while demands for greater autonomy and restoration of tribal rights are gaining momentum.
In PoK, protests against economic hardship, rising electricity costs, and governance failures have intensified. The Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) and local residents have repeatedly clashed with law-enforcement authorities, exposing deep public dissatisfaction with Islamabad’s rule.
Meanwhile, the Baloch insurgent groups continue to challenge the state’s authority through high-profile attacks targeting security forces and Chinese interests. The security situation has become so precarious that Chinese concerns regarding the safety of their personnel have affected the progress of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once promoted as a transformative economic project.
Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities further compound these security challenges. A high debt burden, fiscal constraints, inflationary pressures, and dependence on external financing continue to undermine stability. Remittances also are down because of the West Asian conflict.
India’s image globally is on the rise. Over the past year, India has strengthened strategic, economic, and security partnerships with several countries across Europe, the Indo-Pacific, West Asia, and its neighbourhood, while also upgrading several relationships to strategic or special/enhanced strategic partnership status. For Pakistan, which desires parity with India, it is not a palatable development.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan’s political and military leaders have increasingly sought to blame India for its internal troubles. Senior Pakistani leaders have recently accused India of supporting anti-Pakistan militant groups, allegations that India has firmly rejected. While on 9th June, India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, rightly pointed out Pakistan’s tendency to blame its neighbours reflected a deeper effort by the country’s military establishment to distract public attention from domestic political, economic, and security failures, and firmly rejecting Pakistan’s representative referring to groups inside its own borders as ‘Fitna al Hindustan’, calling it an outcome of an “organised factory of hate” against India; on 18th June, India’s First Secretary at the UN, stated that the situation in PoK was the outcome of forcible occupation and repression.
The pattern is familiar. Whenever the Pak Army faces mounting internal pressures, it seeks to rally domestic support by amplifying the perceived threat from India. Therefore, India must remain on alert. Intelligence gathering, border security, counter-terrorism capabilities, and diplomatic efforts to expose Pakistan-sponsored terrorism should be significantly strengthened.
While strategic patience remains important, complacency would be dangerous in the current situation. There is a distinct possibility of the Pakistan Army under growing pressure at home resorting to reckless external actions. India must be prepared to deter, defeat, and impose unbearable costs on any future provocation. The response must be harder, swift and decisive.
The evolving situation demands constant vigilance and unwavering national resolve. It may be noted that Pakistan’s information warfare has been upgraded to cognitive warfare to manipulate India’s public mind for its sinister design of fracturing societal-cohesion and degrade legitimacy of the government. It treats the human brain as the battlespace. To effectively neutralise Pakistani narratives peddled through different means of communications including social media platforms, India urgently needs an empowered organisation to plan and implement the counter-strategy in a unified and proactive manner, involving all stakeholders. This has to be a continuing process.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
