If imitation is sincerest form of flattery, Trump’s blockade of Hormuz Strait is a compliment to Iran. For 45 days already, Iran has blocked this geographical tap, through which 20% of world’s oil flows. The only tankers going in and out have been those filled at Iran’s own ports. In fact, Iran shipped more oil daily, through March, than it does normally. It also got a sanctions waiver on 140mn barrels of oil already at sea. Without these concessions, global oil prices would have been much higher. But Trump’s blockade, which started at 7.30pm yesterday – our time – is specifically directed at tankers transiting Iranian ports. So, between Trump and Iran, the choke of Hormuz is complete. Which explains Iran’s warning to Americans yesterday: “You will soon miss $4 to $5 gasoline.”
A likely scenario, considering benchmark prices, which had cooled after last week’s ceasefire, rose 7% yesterday. You don’t need complex war-gaming to see resumption of hostilities could push crude past $120 again. If US blocks tankers carrying Iranian oil, Iran won’t let other tankers pass peacefully. It will attack them with drones and missiles. It could also resume strikes on Gulf energy infra, reducing oil and gas availability for months, even years. If its Houthi proxies in Yemen target Red Sea shipping, the crisis could get worse.
Pre-war, 130 vessels used to pass through the Strait daily. Can US escort, say, 100 a day? Can it guarantee the safety of each and every one? With insurance rates as high as they are, what are the odds ships will run the risk of a hit, even with US navy’s shield? On the other hand, what can the US realistically do about tankers loaded with Iranian oil? Can it sink them? It better not, for the ecological nightmare would be on it. Can it pursue and seize them? Don’t forget bulk of Iranian oil goes to China. Last time, Trump messed with China, using sky-high tariffs, he got their rare-earths medicine. Besides, he has a China trip coming up in May.
Trump needs this war to end quickly, because high energy prices, and inflation, will hurt his party in US mid-term elections. But expecting the Iranian regime to cave in, is unrealistic. It’s a clear symptom of what Pope Leo has described as “delusion of omnipotence”. The proper way to end the war is via talks, and that’s what Trump should focus on.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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